Ordinals Market Update for April 8th 2023
Planet of the Bitcoin Apes! Battle of the bullish Mumus & bearish Bobos. The Nakamigos are coming!
Update (+3 hours): Wizord.io, mentioned later in this post as a great aggregator of marketplace data over the key 24 hour timeframe, is the only current source for Ordinal market Price Floor charts right now. Wizord has kindly provided 2 weekly charts representing top popular collections. Charts with similar data will soon be featured on Wizord itself, with greatly improved legibility and a cleaner design. Ladies and gents, I present to you perhaps the earliest price charts available for Bitcoin Apes and Pixel Mumus:
Bitcoin Apes peaked mid-week at ~2 million sats (0.02 BTC) on Wednesday the 5th. Price has since taken a breather and is settling around the 0.0145m sats level. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Apes resume its uptrend of the earlier week.
Pixel Mumus are displaying a pattern that may resolve into a bearish (Bobo-ish?) double top, unless the 290k sat peak set last week Saturday is breached by the current upward impulse. Pixel Mumus are currently going strong, up 31% over the last 24 hours and eyeing the 290k level. If they push through decisively, expect a new bull run in the upcoming week.
In the Ordinals Market roundup published Thursday, there was some speculation that the Bitcoin Apes were making a strong showing and might come to dominate the market. Today’s weekly Volume data from Best in Slot shows that exactly this Planet of the Apes scenario has unfolded, with the Apes snatching pole position from DeGods:
While I’d love to claim that my crystal ball is working at maximum efficiency, the fact is that anyone could have “predicted” this based on daily data. See, the weekly (“7D”) timeframe shown by Best in Slot tends to lag what’s happening on a daily (“24H”) basis. As an example, pretend the Apes did 1000 BTC in Volume on the first day of the week then had no sales over the rest of the week. Meanwhile, pretend Mumus did 50 BTC on day 1, 100 BTC on D2, 150 BTC on D3 and so on. If you only checked the 7D list on day 5, you’d see Apes still comfortably ahead but miss the rising trend in Mumus. If that trend continued, by the end of the week Mumus would have done 400 BTC more in sales than Apes.
These kind of market scenarios, where performance over time is key to predicting future outcomes, are a hell of lot quicker and easier to see on a good market charts covering multiple timeframes than they are to explain in words or sift from pages of numbers. To that end, another great aggregation service, Wizord.io, shows Floor Price data for the Ordinals market but currently only on a daily timeframe. A great feature of Wizord is that it also displays price charts:
What’s needed now is to aggregate these aggregators! To trade the Ordinals market, it’d be incredibly useful to have 24H and 7 Day timeframes – hourly and monthly would be great too – as well as charts for these timeframes which display both Floor Price and Volume. It’s might be tough to predict which collections are going to outperform but I can confidently predict that whichever aggregator site is first with these helpful features is going to become the CoinMarketCap of the Ordinals market. As an aside, it’d would be very interesting to learn what projects the
vul – venture capitalists are eyeing in this space. If it was me, I’d be throwing money at everything right now.
Anyway, to return to the point about charts, if we had good 7D price charts it’d be easy to notice something important – the Floor Prices on the top collections are dropping! Here’s a side by side of the BiS data from Thursday against today’s data, both sorted by weekly Volume:
Apart from the Ordinal Punks holding steady, Floor Prices are down across the top 10 (one new entrant was excluded for comparison purposes). As a result, Market Caps (Floor Price * Supply) are likewise down across the board. So, what do these falling Floor Prices mean? Perhaps that as ever more Inscriptions are being listed, demand is being diluted. Or it could just be a blip. We require a more tools for more analysis!
It should be emphasised that analysis of trading data is far from the only way to profit in the Ordinals market. For a new and still-fragmented market like this one, such analysis is definitely less valuable than good market knowledge. Unless you possess such knowledge yourself, that means you have to rely on the word of recognised experts. Personally, Steve prefers objective data, which is far less likely to “talk its book.”
Nevertheless, someone with unquestionable market knowledge is the famous digital asset collector, Leonidas. Lately, he’s been tweeting about the mass inscription of BitAmigos although he also denies any personal stake in the project. Similar to Bitcoin Apes, Nakamigos are another popular ETH NFT currently being community-cloned to Bitcoin. Given Leonidas’ interest and the tip from the last Art Hodl in the last Market Roundup about proven NFT successes likely to do well on Ordinals, it may be a good bet to inscribe a Nakamigo…
Full Disclosure: the author holds no financial stake in any products or services mentioned above.